July 4, 2022



IBD Live QA Summary, Stock Lists For Thursday, March 31, 2022

15 min read
Question Answer Greetings, would you please share your thoughts on AOSL and SWN? SWN reversed under the 20% profit zone. It’s very volatile so it’s a good idea to take some partial profits, especially with oil under pressure this morning. AOSL also had a bad reversal yesterday. Given that the market is extended and likely
to pull back some more, you could take some profits in this one as well. Harold two times this week – very nice glad to see you again Harold, always a pleasure to hear your insights. Thank you! The news on LAC was compelling We were saying yesterday it was actionable! GM IBD Live! Can you share a link for the Joe Fahmy webinar last Saturday. I signed up but was not able to attend in person. Thanks! It was not recorded if I’m not mistaken — only a live session. Sorry you missed it! good afternoon here in Ireland, good morning to you Morning Paul. Cheers. tkr AQUA Potentially actionable if sizing position off 21-day line Harold, great to see you for the second time this week, Thanks for joining us this morning. Thank you! Can we please review EDR? it is part of new america index. Potentially setting up a trend line within the double bottom but it’s been lagging. Would want to see a solid move above the trend line GM! Could you recommend an ETF to watch that reflects the oil market? There are so many. I follow XLE, USO, OIH, XOP. Morning all. As a trader What do you guys do with your portfolio when you go on vacation? If I’m off the grid, I usually hedge all or part of my porfolio by shorting Nasdaq futures. Otherwise, I just set alerts and monitor my positions on my phone. Could you please share your thoughts on LULU and PAYX? Huge move for LULU — let’s see if it can get above 200-day and form a new base. PAYX breaking out, yes, but feels extended. Could potentially see some turbulence around this buy point so keep that in mind if you buy, and use 7-8% stop. I have a Market School question. On Tuesday we had the Higher High (B8) signal. Yesterday we closed below the marked high and triggered a Break Below a Higher High (S14). If we were to close the day back above 14509.56 on the NASDAQ does that trigger a new B8 or does each marked high only trigger a single B8? Just the single B8. GM, guys! Ive been watching intra-day charts more closely recently and notice many stocks are having big (up) volume spikes shortly before the daily market close….is that a sign of institutional accumulation? There are often a lot of buy on close orders, which are often entered by institutions. QQQ was 6.5% above the 50 dma on Tuesday before yesterday’s pullback. If that as much of an issue given still under the 200 dma Not especially pertinent so soon after a follow through. It’s actually a sign of strength. Once the market starts trending above the 50 and 200 day lines is when I pay attention to those signals. Is Bros a buy Now A little extended for me. Still about 12% above the 21-day. If the market continues to pull back, I’d expect it tighten up around this latest buy point. Is Bros a buy Now live answered Good Morning. Who’s going to be the special guest tomorrow. Thanks Ross Haber of TraderLion. Looking at setups ORLY and TSCO Really liking the look of TSCO right now how might today look different since it is the end of a month and quarter, vs tomorrow (i.e., window dressing?) . Thank you. That’s not something we pay a ton of attention to — all comes down to the chart action. I am curious what stop losses IBD live panelists are using in this market? Is it a % or a moving average? Cheers ( I got stopped out of NVDA yesterday, I may have set too tight a stop.) Looks like your stop was too tight. NVDA closed above the 10-day moving average, which is fairly short but OK if you’re treating it as a swing trade. In general, we don’t use trailing stops. For position trades we focus on areas of support,
as well as longer moving averages like the 21-day, 50-day and the 10-week, which is my favorite. I am curious what stop losses IBD live panelists are using in this market? Is it a % or a moving average? Cheers ( I got stopped out of NVDA yesterday, I may have set too tight a stop.) Looks like your stop was too tight. NVDA d Can you look at CSL? It is in the pivot but had a down day yesterday. RS 92 To me, ideal day to get in was 3/16 when it cleared 243 in above average volume. But it’s about 7% above the 10-week line so not too extended by that measure! OIH rocks That is amazing given how oil is still down 3%. Had a TSCO alert but it blew by it! live answered PAYX trig Run up a lot pretty quickly! AMD just crossed below the 50 day. Please discuss if you get a minute. live answered Any thoughts on a possible setup on PSX? live answered TSCO Breaking out live answered Harold – In your option strategy, how do you manage risk management? Do you put same 8% or less for losses and 20% or more trimming? Yes, I apply buy & sell rules with options and buying/selling shares et Very strong move this week for ET! 3/25 looks like it ws the ideal entry to me. Extended here. Good Morning, please share your thoughts on GFS. live answered Good morning all. Thanks for advice to sit on my hands and not to feel as if each day I must buy or sell something. What do you think about natural gas stocks such as CHK? CHK still looks good but it’s extended after breakout over 73.66 on Feb. 25. It could pull back and test its 21-day moving average again. It found support there last time. is this a good time to add to MNRL? A rebound off the 21-day line has been a good add area for a number of top-performing cyclical stocks over the last few months. This is not one that’s been on our radar because it’s only $13 mil in average dollar volume. We like to see at
least $20 mil (share price x avg. daily volume). Also, I don’t like that heavy volume decline from 28 to 23 TSCO breaking out of a sloppy double bottom on 800%+ vol worth checking out Looks interesting to me! Barrons had a nice podcast on the refiners last week. They singled out MOC PSX as very strong with lots of upside. PSX has been a laggard but potentially actionable yesterday w/ retake of 50-day and trend line. But weekly chart reveals even more how it’s lagged the S&P for a long while. Morning everyone! NET fighting to hold reclaimed 200. Thoughts? Enterprise software group is still out of favor. Only software group that’s interesting right now is security software. PANW extended, FTNT looks like it needs a handle. Is congress due to make a decision on legalization of pot in the near future? If so, how about TLRY? That area still needs more time to set up properly. COST is moving with higher volume On the daily, it’s extended. On the weekly, it’s on the borderline. It’s more extended than I’d like to buy it — I’m already up almost 10% on the trade, bought close to the 10-week line. GOOGL is my biggest position. Is it forming a handle here or is it too low in the base? It could be forming a handle if we see it around these levels or pull back a little more over the next few days. It’s not too low! Currently 7% below the top of the base, 11% above the bottom of the base. My IBD Live subscription ended a few days ago and I missed you all so much that I renewed immediately. Seriously I learn so much from watching and listening to you, I also appreciate you answering my novice questions. Keep up the great work. Great to hear Shane. Thanks for the comment. With the Fed supposedly going to raise rates, when a stock like PAYX that has a PE of 37 and Growth of 9%, how do you view that? Even Though the chart looks good. It’s run up a lot. Feels extended even though it’s technically breaking out. COST blue skies Indeed! Why did Micron (MU) put in such an ugly outside reversal candle yesterday, the morning after incredible earnings reporting and guidance? I listened to the presentation, and its CEO literally forecast that MU is poised for the greatest growth
phase in its history. Every aspect of operations is turbo charged. There’s no valuation issue here: its PE is single digit 9 ! What am I missing here? Very good question. I follow the company closely myself. Seemed like a very strong report. Harold what are you doing with options in this market? Selling put spreads for bullish action, debit spreads for bearish trades why market is so down? We’ve moved up SO much in the last two weeks. A pause or pullback here is normal and makes sense. “GM do you know what is going on with AOSL and GFS?” live answered What does the gorup think about bx? We still have it on the Leaderboard watchlist. Just waiting for it to fully break out of its downtrend. why is JBHT a dog that wont “Hunt”? To mix metaphors, it looks like the lone wolf in the trucking group. So no industry momentum behind it. If it closes below last week’s reversal I will completely exit. Morning team. Since today is End of the quarter, do you expect any window dressing activity towards the close? (close higher?) That’s not something we think about/focus on. All comes down to the actual chart action. AOSL action today? live answered Can we look at $NEM? Too extended to buy Regarding the refiners: VLO, MPC and PSX. A major input to refining is natgas. Think of a refiner like an alcohol distiller — there’s the cost of the grain (oil) plus the cost of heat in order to crack or distill the end product. European
refiners are bascially ‘out of the market’ bc Europe now bascially doesn’t even have enough natgas & prices are 5x USA prices, so crack spreads (profit margins) for USA refiners goes up. Great info, Matthew. Thanks for the input. would you have a look at AMD live answered Hi, EW… Good to see it making some progress. If we can see a handle form here and a powerful move higher after that, would be especially interesting. But as of now, it’s only kept pace with the S&P since last September. Any discussion points on why COST continues to go up independent of rest of the market going up/down? Had a fantastic move in 2021. Can it have a repeat this year? Super stable earnings, solid earnings estimates, and strong price action. DAR vs BG? Both have been tricky lately! AOSL dropping sharply. Any idea why? live answered Ya’ll are gonna add NET… you know you want to. Haha it’s had a strong move from 80 to 120 but seeing potential resistance here at the 200-day. If it can get above that and form a new base, we might focus on it more. But enterprise software has not been impressive compared to other areas
of the market this year. harold when u say you want to see volume, above 40% you mention, how long does it generally take for the volume to show in marketsmith on the day, or should u be looking at the weekly first? Look the daily chart. The weekly shows vol % change for the week GWW trig 9 gains in 11 sessions. Seems stretched to me. Yet another example of chart that would benefit from a handle. What is “New America” story? It’s a weekly article in IBD Digital featuring companies that meet the N in CAN SLIM Would you consider DAR a double bottom which would have given you an earlier buy point? Not seeing it myself. Are you talking about a middle of the “W” the week ending 1/7/22? If so, that just seems a little low to me. You usually expect more of a rally after the first leg down. can u take a look at SG and ATKR? thanks SG on the speculative side — volatile action. Would like to see a full-on base form here. ATKR stil working on its base. That group has fallen in the industry rankings. TGLS appears to be the leader but I’m not a fan of the look of the chart. Better buys elsewhere PANW flying, near NH The reversal at the 50-day was the best area to get in this one. I didn’t pull the trigger and should have! what the heck on AOSL? Down 10% on what? Not a good reversal day today – any news? Thankfully I got this early on the trend break live answered Nice bounce ON. Best of Breed. If you get a chance, NET and ON today please. Mary Ellen considers these strong buys, if only a half position. NOW cleared a trend line the other week but ddin’t do so in strong volume. Looks like semis are getting hit by negative news. is COST getting added to Leaderboard? lot of volume today We did add because we were wanting more volume to come in earlier — too extended for us to add it here. LOVE? Nice ER gap up on +1,200 vol, inside day yesterday, sideways on 60M chart, buying here w/ $52.44 stop. Any problems with that? Strong move on earnings, yes, but the 50-day has been declining and stock hitting resistance at 200-day. Reversal from yesterday high on AOSL seems like a bad head fake. live answered Can we look at NVDA? live answered GFS is not happy today either. live answered Great point about consumer electronics fading. Maybe that’s why GFS is tanking, too, live answered Scott’s favorite play, uranium, is moving. If you’re going to buy that, I think buying close to the 21-day line is ideal because it really likes to whip around so buying into strength is tricky. Is ANET ready? Kind of in no-man’s land. When it cleared 134 on 3/22 was ideal day to get in, though it didn’t have volume. Looks like it needs to forma handle here. Thoughts on EW. Looks like the right side of a base Let’s see if it can make a little more progress and then form a handle Time for coffee break yet? BRCC with nice range break from yesterday off open over 20.12. BROS looks like move fading again. Thoughts on these two now? live answered Would like to know how Harold feels about SCCO today and if he ever got in? Not yet, waiting for some volume, the market might suppress price move Thoughts on JNPR. Extended here — best day to get in was when it cleared a trend line on 3/17. that’s when I got in. what do you think of GNK? Breakout is holding up for now! GFS hit my stop. Stops are sooooo important. Yes, they are! I have all positions with stops but I will buy them back if they reverse on me. That flexibility is so important. You might be early on a stock and get shaken out but it doesn’t mean you didn’t have the right idea. will you look at ON semi ? more of an auto, industrial chip maker Cleared a trend line the other week but haven’t seen strong volume (need to exclude 3/18 triple witching) BROS is digesting well live answered Good morning all. may we have a look we look at ORLY? I sold COST too early but how about WMT? Seems recession stocks doing well WMT needs to pull back/form a handle. ORLY technically in a buy zone. This is a slower mover that likes to hug the 50-day so keep that in mind. TSCO breaking out Looking pretty good! Schlumberger – hold or not ? Depends on where you bought. We like having a profit cushion heading into earnings. Keep an eye on that 50-day, too. EXLS slowly breaking out yeah wish I woulda gotten in on Tuesday! Nike -buy or wait? Wait — 50-day is in a downtrend and below the 200-day. The apparel shoes group is ranked 195 out of 197 — we like focusing on the top 40-50 groups, with a few exceptions (if a group has improved from 120 to 70 in a quick clip, for example) BROS Where do you set your stop loss with such a volatile stock? In this case on a position trade, you could just use the 7% sell rule and aim for a 20%-25% profit. Why short BAC and not C which looks like a better short? I think C looks good too. In fact, right after the show I’m going to edit an options article on a bearish diagonal spread for C. Be on the lookout in a few hours. What is happening to AOSL?! It’s plummeting. Is this a bad time for any semiconductor related stocks? live answered Good call on COST over the last few weeks. Glad to hear it! I’m in that one too. Could you share your monthly chart settings for FTNT? Thanks. live answered JBHT is trucking down hill live answered Harold, did you get into GOGL and do you still own any shares? I’m at 10.09, sold 1/3 on 3/29 What is happening with AOSL, if you discussed earlier, I just logged on TSM CEO comments on waning demand for smart phones — impacting chip stocks Does LFG need to form a handle now? No volume on moves above 22. I think a handle/pullback here would be ideal Thoughts on NLSN? I believe this moved earlier in the week on buyout news. So we don’t buy those. Harold, I believe GOOGL will be doing a 20:1 split in a few months. Thanks! Q for Harold: Do you usually buy naked options or spreads? How does Open Interest affect your decisions? Do you have a rule for minimum open interets? Thx. Mostly spreads, put spreads for bullish moves, debit spreads for bearish moves COST, buy hold or sell? Hold! Can you please explain why is so important to form a handle and shakeout before stock move on? I would like to understand the behaviour beyond the pattern. Tks😀 live answered But for BROS it is already 11% above the 21-day, so a pullback to there would be normal. I bought it yesterday, so I could easily get stopped out at 7-8% That’s why I sized my initial position smaller so I could withstand such a pullaback. TECK ? Ascending base in progress. Could buy here and size off 10-week. flng- thoughts It’s too extended here to buy. Would wait for a pullback or new base. ALB for lightning round? Good to see the move off lows but still needs more work. Other chemicals stocks (agriculture) have been the real stars this year. WSC? Technically in a buy range Ed & Ali>>> what makes breakout with handle with conviction if volume comes without any any upgrade or earning report. is higher volume comes only based on technical setup? My question is what bring the volume when handle is formed
if there is no news or upgrade etc. That big money makes decisions about where to put their money — they don’t need news to do so. That’s why we look at technicals and don’t rely on headlines to make decisions Thoughts on ..AMD ..(Archer Daniels Midland) ADM seems extended to me. Boston? When will the IBD crew come to Boston for a summit? Events are listed here! https://get.investors.com/trading-summit/ I’m sure as things continue to get back to normal, we’ll be doing more events. MP up over 20% from pivot in less than 2 weeks. Anyone attempting to use the 8 week rule? live answered Hi Rachel! Fantastic and succinct article in last weekends IBD issue on “Breakouts.” Thank you. Thanks so much Gary! Glad it was helpful. HLT fit the definition of ‘wide and loose’? A lot of headwinds/tailwinds roiling travel stocks. DDOG getting support at 50 day and 200 day. low risk entry here? Not a trade for me. But it’s only 6% above the 200-day, so the risk is manageable. ANET battling in buy zone, thoughts? I’m waiting for a handle or pullback followed by some strong volume before I add. Now up in volume is back to 13 stocks (previous whiskey tango foxtrot question) Weird. I will alert the developers. typo: EDR vs LYV I think LYV looks stronger only down 7.5% from its high vs. 16.5% for EDR. Live Nation needs to get Coldplay back on tour!!! They are touring next month. I bought tickets for my wife and daughters at SoFi stadium in a month. EXR has better ratings in Stock Rank in Industry Group than PSA yet Justin says that PSA is the leader. So what am I missing or looking at differently? Price action. PSA already at highs, broke out earlier.
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